Chips In! Aami Victoria Derby Day #Xmasforadults @Flemington 3/11/18

Welcome to Christmas day for adults. Here at Chips In we are more excited than a virgin on a first date with Paris Hilton…. $1.05? Derby Day is the best day on the Australian racing calendar with four Group 1 events on the program and over $7 million dollars up for grabs. You are guaranteed two things on Derby Day 1. Excellent Group 1 racing and 2. Me downing a chocolate muffin and xxxx gold before 10.30. The highlight on the program is Australia’s oldest race the Victoria Derby with the Coolmore, The Empire Rose (Myer) and The Kennedy Mile (Emirates Stakes) all rounding out a stellar day of racing. We are creeping towards the first Tuesday in November and if you are not excited by that you may as well have Ebola, herpes or follow croquet. This is what Chasing The Sun is all about #nothingbeatsspring #walkingonadream #thechips #chipslife. After a record breaking Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate weekend I am walking into Flemington taller than Trotter from ‘Let It Ride’ #cheeseburger

Race 1. The Carbine Club. Not a race I will be pushing the chips In. Usually a race where punters can get off to a good start, and traditionally a favourites race. Rainer (god bless him) won in the last stride at Caulfield after being slaughtered the start before at Flemington. Broke 12 seconds to run down Yulong January who was hampered by a riderless horse. Wild Planet was strong late and he can get a better run in transit from barrier 4. SUGGESTION: Small place bet Rainer if you need a punt in the first (remember it’s a 4 day carnival)

Race 2. Wakeful Stakes. All things being equal Verry Elleegant wins with a leg in the air. It was stiff at it’s Australian Debut at this track behind a Group 1 winner before carrying on like a pork chop and still being too good and classy over 2000m. She made ground on a day where most winners made the running or boxed seated. John Allen has options from barrier 6 and the even money quote is about right. Hopefully she has come on from her tough win and she will win before lining up in the Oaks as a short priced favourite. El Dorado Dreaming was good against the bias at Moonee Valley on Saturday, and she should get a soft run from barrier 3. I just feel the Wakeful/Oaks winner was having a rest Cox Plate day instead of chasing a quality field against a strong bias. SUGGESTION: Chips In Verry Elleegant.

Race 3. The Tab Stakes. Missrock can go one better this year after being narrowly beaten by ‘The people’s horse Rich Charm. Ran well first up behind Ball Of Muscle on a day where it was hard to make ground. The middle draw is perfect and $9 is over the odds for a horse placed in a Group 1 Lighting and Goodwood. Osbourne Bulls was bigger than my wallet Saturday night in The Everest. Tommy Berry grabbed a hotdog and a Boags at the 200m he was that wide but he still savaged the line. $3 is short enough with 59kg but he is drawn nicely in barrier 11 and he will be sprouting late. Runson will be thereabouts and is flying as is Winter Bride. SUGGESTION: Missrock each way and a saver on Osbourne Bulls.

Race 4. The Lexus Stakes. The last chance to qualify for the race that stops the nation. Really keen to have an each way bet on Jaameh at $5. Before being pipped on the post by the one time Melbourne Cup favourite and Cox Plate 3rd runner up Avillius at Flemington in The Bart Cummings, Jaameh was undefeated at Flemington over the 2500m. From barrier 2 Mark Zahra can give Jaameh a similar run to the Bart Cummings and save every possible inch. Will need luck on turning, but he will stay all day, loves Flemington, and will be sprouting late. Runaway will ensure a genuine tempo and try to give them the slip like he did here on Anzac Day and recently in The Geelong Cup. Hard to ignore the run of A Prince Of Arran in The Group 2 Herbet Power. Michael Walker jumps off Jaameh to ride which is a good push and there has been early money for the international raider. Brimham Rocks is putting in a Tom Melbourne like preparation, looks the winner until the post appears. Quality horse who keeps finding one better! SUGGESTION: Jaameh eachway, go wide in exotics i.e. Early quaddies and trifectas.

Race 5. Coolmore Stud Stakes. According to the punters it is a race in three! Sunlight, Zousain and Written By have all opened up at $4.20. Form around The Autumn Sun is good enough, drop back to 1200m after a nice freshen up, a cracking trial down the Flemington straight, The J Mac factor (James McDonald) will all push me into Zousain. Written By got all the favours last start at Caulfield, and I don’t like Sunlight on the quick back up who was disappointing in The Group 1 Manikato Stakes. Encryption exploded here two starts back before running crazy sectionals behind Written By off a slow tempo. $9 is great each way value. SUGGESTION: Zousain to win and something each way on Encryption who will be flying late and offers great value.

Race 6. The Empire Rose Stakes. 50kg is a gift for the flying Amphitrite. Yes she needs to beat the more seasoned and experience mares but her last two wins which include a win here at the distance have been top notch and the form around her as been franked. $5 is a good price for a filly with a massive turn of foot. Flemington suits her as does the mile. Aloisia looks to be back to her best (1000 Guineas and Aami Vase wins -2017) after running on against a slow speed and recording sizzling sectionals. Peaks third up from a spell and the mile will suit. Will need luck from the barrier. The 2016 winner I Am A Star is going as well as anything and is putting the picket fence besides her name. Will give them something to catch and may look the winner at some stage. SUGGESTION: Something small on Amphitrite with the light weight at $5. Tough Race!

Race 7. The Aami Victoria Derby. Thinkin’ Big was very impressive at Caulfield last start. He did a lot of work in Sydney before blowing his rivals away by more than 3 lengths. The 2500m will suit, Tim Clark is a champion (thanks mate) and he is the second of my good things on an open day of punting at $3. The son of High Chaparral can sit just off the pace or control the speed himself. I personally think he is simply better and I wont be surprised if he doesn’t sneak into the cup on Tuesday after he wins The Derby impressively. Push Them In! Chapada was a run short but chased gamely behind Thinkin’ Big and will be ready for Saturday while Extra Brut is coming off a forgive run. Aramayo was massive at the valley as was Stars Of Carrum. SUGGESTION: Chips In Thinkin’ Big. Chapada the value runner.

Race 8. The Kennedy Mile. Expecting Best Of Days to thrive back at the mile after a tough chase at Caulfield over 2000m where he dead heated (ouch!). Craig Williams can put him to sleep from barrier 1 and will just need a run as they corner. He is well weighted with 52kg, there will be plenty of speed on, he should have improved off the tough Caulfield run, and he offers great value at $13. Land Of Plenty is a well deserved favourite after his win in The Group Toorak. His run prior in The Rupert Clarke was just as good. Serious horse. Peaceful State is consistent and runs well at Flemington. SUGGESTION: Best roughie for Derby Day is Best Of Days. Have a saver on Land Of Plenty if you are having a winning day.

Race 9. Furphy Sprint. Open race to finish a quality day of racing. Prepared to give Snitty Kitty another go after running bravely at her first two runs this preparation. She comes back to her own sex after racing against some of the best sprinters in the country. She will paddle late but if she runs out the 1100m she will be hard to beat. Will give a good sight. From Within can win if she handles the Flemington straight (plenty haven’t). Will be on pace and can keep going if her latest win is anything to go on. I am Excited oozes quality but I am concerned she will be on the worst part of the track at the end of the day. SUGGESTION: Hopefully you are winning by the last! I am with Snitty Kitty and From Within. With both $7 I will be having something on both and standing them out in all exotics with I am Excited. Head to the casino for a boags after a winning day.

 

Chips In Best Bet: Flemington Race 2 Number 2 Verry Elleegant (20 units the win @$2)

Best Each Way: Flemington Race 4 Number 10 Jaameh (6 units the win 4 units the place @$5)

Best Roughie: Flemington Race 8 Number 17 Best Of Days (3 units the win 7 units the place @$13)

Next Best: Flemington Race 7 Number 1 Think’ Big (5 units the win 5 units the place @$3)

Best Place Bet: Flemington Race 5 Number 2 Zousain (2 units the win 8 units the place @$4.20/$1.80)

 

Happy Punting!

@asichasethesun

CHASE THE SUN

Tony James Edser

img_8252

Tony Edser

Tony Edser is the founder of Chips In Racing. He is a racing enthusiast and tragic. From horse ownership, to a racing fan, to a punter, he has always been involved in the sport of kings. Contact him on Twitter at @asichasethesun.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>